As we approach Labor Day with under 10 weeks until Election Day, recent polls highlight a significant shift and a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Changed Dynamics: Harris Gains Traction
Recent polling conducted after President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 race, following the Democratic National Convention, and subsequent to independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump, shows Vice President Kamala Harris making notable gains. This contrasts with earlier polling that frequently showed Trump with a slight edge before Biden’s departure.
She now holds narrow leads both nationally and in key battleground states. While these leads are minimal and within the margin of error, they represent a significant turnaround from the polls that showed Trump ahead.
National Polls: Harris Slightly Ahead
The latest Wall Street Journal poll indicates Harris with 48% support among registered voters, just ahead of Trump’s 47%, a difference within the margin of error. This is a shift from the previous Wall Street Journal poll, which had Trump leading by 2 points (49% to 47%). Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll shows Harris leading Trump by 1 point among likely voters (49% to 48%). This poll marks Quinnipiac’s first measure of likely voters for this cycle; prior polls had shown Trump narrowly leading Biden in June and Harris in July. Additionally, a USA Today/Suffolk poll shows she leading Trump by 5 points among likely voters, also within the margin of error.
Battleground States: A Mixed Picture
In battleground states, recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls show a competitive race:
- Arizona and North Carolina: Harris and Trump are tied.
- Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania: Vice President leads within the margin of error.
- Wisconsin: Harris is ahead outside the margin of error.
However, the polling picture varies by state. For example, an EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan shows Trump with a narrow 1-point lead over Harris (47% to 46%), a shift from June when Trump led Biden by 4 points.
A notable change since Biden’s exit is the improved standing for Vice President in the Sun Belt states. Previously considered less competitive for Biden, states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina now appear more attainable for Harris. This shift reflects a broader tightening of margins across several states, indicating a more competitive race than before.
The timing of these polls is crucial. They come nearly six weeks after Biden’s withdrawal, the Democratic convention, and a period of perceived political momentum for Harris. The key question now is whether this momentum will sustain or if Harris will face a normalization of support as the election nears.
A recurring pattern in recent polls is Trump’s stable support at around 47%. This figure mirrors his 47% share of the popular vote in the 2020 election, which he lost, and his 46% in the 2016 election, which he won.
Impact of Third-Party Candidates
The size of the third-party vote has fluctuated, influencing Trump’s electoral performance. In 2016, third-party candidates received 6% of the vote, whereas, in 2020, their share dropped to 2%. Current polls show a combined third-party vote share of around 2% in the Quinnipiac national poll and 4% in the USA Today/Suffolk poll. This reduced third-party vote could impact the overall dynamics of the race, especially with Kennedy out of the contest.
In summary, the polls indicate a shifted and tight race, with Harris making gains but facing an equally competitive environment. The evolving dynamics in both national and battleground state polls highlight the unpredictability of the 2024 election as Labor Day approaches.