Taiwan is under pressure to strengthen its defense capabilities. With uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election in November, Taiwan is under pressure.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chialung told reporters last month that the self-governing island must rely on itself for defense. They will continue to invest in and improve their military. This is due to the danger that comes from China. They consider Taiwan their island.
The minister’s comments came after presidential candidate Donald Trump said Taiwan should pay Washington for military protection. Trump said the country “gives us nothing” and has taken “100% of our chip business.”
Experts said Trump’s comments underscored the unpredictability Taiwan faces.
Trump’s position on Taiwan
Biden has been more lenient on the island. He has said several times that the U.S. will stand up for Taiwan. Trump, however, has proven “erratic and unpredictable” since the start of his first term, said Stephen Nagy, a professor of political science and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, Japan.
Just days after his inauguration, Trump became the first U.S. president in decades to directly speak to the president of Taiwan.
He later suggested that the U.S. might change its long-standing position, claiming that Taiwan was part of “one China.” But that wasn’t the end of it. He retracted his words in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2016.
As in 2016, Donald Trump is pursuing a hard-line policy toward China. He has already proposed significantly escalating his trade war against the country.
Muhammad Faisal, a research fellow at Singapore’s J.F. Chan School of International Studies, said: S. Rajaratnam said they feared Trump’s “short-sighted and transactional approach” to foreign and defense relations — exemplified by his comments about Taiwan paying the U.S. for defense — could once again put them on his geopolitical dartboard.
Meanwhile, experts say the extent to which they will be able to steer policy remains unclear.
What’s in store for Taiwan under Harris?
Harris is the second-choice candidate for the U.S. presidency. Analysts say she will remain somewhat consistent. They expect Harris to follow Biden’s policies.
Dewardrick McNeil, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, said it was unclear what Harris was thinking. However, as vice president, she expressed support for Taiwan and met with the island’s new leader, Lai Ching-de, in 2022. But Harris has considerably less foreign policy experience than President Biden.
Taiwan’s Defense Measures
Either way, both candidates represent a certain level of uncertainty for Taiwan. That’s why the island nation is under great pressure to step up its military resistance and defense.
These efforts have already been gaining momentum since Lai’s election in January.
Lai emphasized joining democracies and strengthening national defense in his inauguration speech. Around the same time, an expanded one-year mandatory military service for men took effect.
Taiwan, meanwhile, has been increasing overall defense spending in its annual budgets. This year, the amount reached 2.6 percent of GDP, with another increase planned for 2025, according to local reports.
Strengthening defense has also led to more weapons from the U.S. As of February this year, the country was waiting for about $19 billion in U.S. weapons, according to the Cato Institute.
The U.S. delegation promised that weapons and a $2 billion support package for Taiwan’s military were on the way.
China’s latest official defense budget was $224 billion. That’s about 12 times larger than Taiwan’s.
Analysts believe that if Trump wins, Taiwan will continue to increase its defense budget to at least 3% of its GDP.